NAFTA Road Wheel Study Overview
ELM International, Inc., East Lasing, Michigan, completed their first wheel study in 1992. Then, 1987 was used as the benchmark year to illustrate the growth of aluminum wheel usage in comparison to 1992. As the reader can see, there has been a steady increase in aluminum wheel fitment, fueled to a great extent by the explosive growth of light trucks.
Model Year |
1987 |
1992 |
1997 |
1999 |
2001 |
2003 |
2005 |
2007 |
Take Rate |
19% |
35.4% |
48.9% |
x |
y |
z |
xx |
yy |
LAI believes that as the market for full size pickups and large SUVs softens, the aluminum share will be maintained by the cars and crossovers that are purchased in their place. In addition, the aluminum share is being maintained by a consistent percentage of aluminum application rates in the truck market.
Between 2005 and 2007, the CSM vehicle build forecast difference was approximately 500,000 units. Car production went up almost 200,000 units but truck production decreased over 700,000 units between the two study years. All of the decrease in wheel volume came from steel wheels. In 2007, the aluminum wheel unit production went up by almost 1.1 million wheels, most of that going to the car segment. The total volume for steel wheels decreased by almost 3.5 million wheels; with 3 million units coming out of the truck segment.
When analyzing the data (See Data Analysis charts), the car share of aluminum went up for 2007 on a volume increase of about 1.4 million wheel units of production. Production forecast difference for the two years is 197,141 vehicle units (At the time they were set for each study). The car share of aluminum went up over 2.3% from 2005 to 2007. This means customers are ordering aluminum wheels for their cars. It is too early to say whether this is a carryover from dressing up trucks for the past number of years, but the crossovers probably make a significant difference.
The aluminum truck share went down 2.3% for ’07 but the total steel and aluminum wheel volume for truck production went down 3.3 million units. The truck share of aluminum wheels went from x% in 2005 to y% in 2007. The volume difference was only about 300,000 units of wheel production but the difference in actual truck production was on the order of 700,000 units. This says that even with a softening market, more buyers are ordering their trucks with aluminum wheels. Steel wheels have taken the brunt of the market volume decline. Between 2005 and 2007, steel wheel volume for both cars and truck dropped almost yyy million units. The big decline came in the truck market with just over a 3 million unit loss.
Styling and consumer demand are still the major factors for the popularity of aluminum wheels. Enhanced vehicle handling in combination with suspension improvements, and lower costs have also made a contribution to the increase in demand. But in the end – people like the way they look.
